Al-Fayha
vs
Al Riyadh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fayha 2–1 Al Riyadh
The model makes it 42% Al-Fayha, 28% draw, 30% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Fayha 1.76, Al Riyadh 1.27.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Fayha at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
Al-Fayha
- D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
- D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026
- W3-2Abha28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon25 August 2026
Al Riyadh
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
- W1-0NEOM28 August 2026
- D3-3away to Al Shabab25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fayha failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh
Al-Fayha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Al Riyadh
- T. Okou3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Fayha carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.35 for Al Riyadh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Al-Fayha and 1.27 for Al Riyadh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fayha rate 0.64 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Riyadh rate 0.62 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Riyadh, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fayha the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Fayha against 1.27 for Al Riyadh. Al-Fayha's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.68 for Al Riyadh.