11 October 2026, 13:40 UTC

Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh Pro League prediction & result

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah
Referee: Abdullah Yahya Zarban
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Al-Fayha, 26% draw, 29% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Fayha at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Fayha96%Draw4%Al Riyadh0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lázaro Vinicius Marquesassist: Jason Remeseiro
16'
32'
Bernard Mensah
45'
🔁Sulaiman Hazaziout: Hussain Qasim
45'
🔁Essam Hassan Abdullah Bahriout: Mahmoud Trezeguet
Ali Al-Hussain
46'
60'
🔁Hussam Majrashiout: Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani
🔁Lázaro Vinicius Marquesout: Yago Souza
69'
🔁Alfa Semedoout: Nawaf Al-Harthi
70'
76'
🔁Hassan Hashim Al-Aliout: Hussain Al-Raqwani
77'
Kader Keita
80'
🔁Sultan Al-Essaout: Hussain Al Shurafa
81'
Hussain Al Shurafa
🔁Ali Al-Hussainout: Rayan Enad
88'
🔁Jason Remeseiroout: Malek Al-Abdulmonam
88'
90+2'
⚽Mahmoud Trezeguetassist: Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani
Fashion Sakala
90+5'

Match stats — Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh

40%Possession60%
11Shots17
4On target2
5Corners9
0.86xG1.36

Goals against chances

Al-Fayha1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Riyadh1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Fayha 4-3-3
  • 52O. MosqueraG
  • 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
  • 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
  • 25O. ColleyD
  • 24Ahmed BamasudD
  • 6Ali Al HussainM
  • 5Hugo MouraM
  • 30Alfa SemedoM
  • 23JasonF
  • 17LázaroF
  • 10F. SakalaF
Substitutes
  • 12Turki Al JaadiD
  • 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
  • 14Mansor Al BesheM
  • 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
  • 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
  • 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
  • 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
  • 40Yago SantanaM
  • 77R. EnadF
Coach: Fábio Carille
Al Riyadh 4-2-3-1
  • 82M. BorjanG
  • 2Sultan AlessaD
  • 5Hossam MajrashiD
  • 26R. AbascalD
  • 12Sulaiman HazaziD
  • 6K. KeitaM
  • 43B. MensahM
  • 10T. OkouM
  • 22V. LekhalM
  • 14Essam BahriM
  • 11H. Al AliF
Substitutes
  • 3Y. M. Al MusaD
  • 17Hussain Al-RaqwaniF
  • 19A. M. Al HarthiM
  • 97Emad FidaG
  • 7TrézéguetM
  • 32Awad DahalD
  • 23Hussain QasimD
  • 79F. Al JayzaniM
  • 13Osama Al BowardiD
Coach: Maurício Dulac

Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh

Al-Fayha

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
  • D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026

Al Riyadh

Pro League

  • W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Al-Fayha122551620-411
12Al Riyadh113351125-1412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh

  • 4 May 2026Al-Fayha 4–2 Al RiyadhPro League
  • 10 January 2026Al Riyadh 1–1 Al-FayhaPro League
  • 26 February 2025Al Riyadh 0–0 Al-FayhaPro League
  • 29 September 2024Al-Fayha 2–0 Al RiyadhPro League
  • 15 March 2024Al-Fayha 1–1 Al RiyadhPro League

The result against the call

Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Fayha at 45% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lázaro Vinicius Marques 16' for Al-Fayha, Mahmoud Trezeguet 90+2' for Al Riyadh. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fayha a 16.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.3% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.9%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Al Riyadh the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.9% going in: 20.7% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 27.7%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Fayha v Al Riyadh has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Al-Fayha's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Fayha win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Al Riyadh win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.