Safa Baku
vs
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Safa Baku 1–0 Kapaz
The model makes it 34% Safa Baku, 32% draw, 34% Kapaz — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Safa Baku 1.03, Kapaz 1.02.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Safa Baku and Kapaz are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Safa Baku are 11th on 3 points from 7 games; Kapaz are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Safa Baku have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Turan.
- Kapaz are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Araz.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Safa Baku vs Kapaz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Safa Baku at 34% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Safa Baku vs Kapaz
Safa Baku
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1Imisli FK29 August 2026
Kapaz
- W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026
- D1-1Sumqayıt20 September 2026
- W1-0Qabala12 September 2026
- L1-4Şamaxı FK4 September 2026
- W1-0Turan30 August 2026
What these results say
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kapaz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Safa Baku | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 |
| 6 | Kapaz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Safa Baku
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 74% today
Kapaz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Safa Baku carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.21 for Kapaz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Safa Baku and 1.02 for Kapaz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Safa Baku rate 0.37 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kapaz rate 0.47 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kapaz, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Safa Baku the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Safa Baku against 1.02 for Kapaz. Safa Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.71 for Kapaz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Safa Baku at home · Kapaz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Safa Baku 7, Kapaz 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Safa Baku
- at Sumqayıt31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- vs Araz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- vs Qabala21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- at Imisli FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 25%
Kapaz
- vs Imisli FK31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 45%
- at Neftchi Baku7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 11%
- vs Qarabag21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Turan28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.