Turan
vs
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Turan 0–1 Sabah FA
The model makes it 23% Turan, 29% draw, 48% Sabah FA — fair odds of 4.35, 3.45 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Turan 0.82, Sabah FA 1.45.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Sabah FA are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Turan are 4th on 14 points from 7 games; Sabah FA are top on 19 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Turan are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Safa Baku.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Qabala.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Turan 1–2 Sabah FA.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Turan vs Sabah FA
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Turan vs Sabah FA
Turan
- W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026
- W1-0Zira19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Araz13 September 2026
- W2-1Sumqayıt6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz30 August 2026
Sabah FA
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
What these results say
- Turan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Turan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 1 | Sabah FA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Turan
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
Sabah FA
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Turan vs Sabah FA
- 22 May 2026Turan 1–2 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 13 December 2025Turan 1–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 20 September 2025Sabah FA 2–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 12 April 2025Turan 2–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 9 February 2025Sabah FA 2–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 3 December 2024Turan 2–2 Sabah FACup
The two sides
Turan carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.91 for Sabah FA. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Turan and 1.45 for Sabah FA. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Turan rate 0.56 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabah FA rate 1.02 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Turan a 0.2% chance of the title and Sabah FA 68.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Turan against 1.45 for Sabah FA. Turan's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.9 for Sabah FA.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Turan at home · Sabah FA away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Turan 7, Sabah FA 7.
Sabah FA score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Turan have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Turan
- at Qarabag7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Şamaxı FK21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 33%
- vs Kapaz28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 54%
Sabah FA
- at Viking4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- vs Şamaxı FK7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 73%
- at Sumqayıt21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.