Qabala
vs
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qabala 0–2 Qarabag
The model makes it 15% Qabala, 22% draw, 63% Qarabag — fair odds of 6.67, 4.55 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Qabala 0.87, Qarabag 2.29.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Qarabag are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Qabala are 9th on 4 points from 8 games; Qarabag are 3rd on 17 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qabala are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Sabah FA.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Neftchi Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Qabala 1–1 Qarabag.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qabala vs Qarabag
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 63% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Qabala vs Qarabag
Qabala
- L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026
- L0-3Neftchi Baku18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz12 September 2026
- W2-1Imisli FK4 September 2026
Qarabag
- D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
What these results say
- Qabala conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qabala had three goals or more.
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Qabala | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Qabala
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 79% today
Qarabag
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Qabala vs Qarabag
- 9 May 2026Qabala 1–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 21 December 2025Qabala 1–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 26 September 2025Qarabag 2–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2024Qabala 0–2 QarabagCup
- 20 April 2024Qarabag 2–2 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 28 February 2024Qabala 0–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa
A clear gap in the ratings
Qabala carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.73 for Qarabag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Qabala and 2.29 for Qarabag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qabala rate 0.43 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qarabag rate 0.98 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qabala a 0% chance of the title and Qarabag 20.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Qabala against 2.29 for Qarabag. Qabala's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.25 for Qarabag.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qabala at home · Qarabag away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qabala 8, Qarabag 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Qabala
- at Zira7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Safa Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- at Şamaxı FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Imisli FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
Qarabag
- vs Turan7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 57%
- at Kapaz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 57%
- vs Sumqayıt28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
- at Araz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.