20 September 2026, 14:15 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Full time1 – 1

Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Valladolid.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 34% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AD Ceuta FC at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AD Ceuta FC0%Draw6%Valladolid94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Juan Miguel Latasa
Carlos Hernández
31'
🔁Arick Betancourtout: José Antonio Abad Martínez
45'
🔁Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadzeout: Yann Bodiger
45'
53'
⚽Juan Miguel Latasaassist: Julien Ponceau
🔁Alejandro Meléndezout: Omar Sadik
64'
🔁Alejandro Camacho Ramírezout: Jordi Escobar
64'
70'
🔁Julien Ponceauout: Alejandro Balboa Bandeira
70'
🔁Víctor Fernándezout: Kaj de Rooij
70'
🔁Adrian Arnuout: Yeray Cabanzón
🔁Edgar Sevikyanout: Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez
70'
79'
Alejandro Balboa Bandeira
82'
🔁Juan Miguel Latasaout: Robin van Duiven
Omar Sadik
85'
86'
Iván Garriel
87'
Alejandro Balboa Bandeira
89'
🔁Luis Rodríguez Chacónout: Pablo Tomeo Félez
Omar Sadik
90+1'
⚽Carlos Hernándezassist: Jordi Escobar
90+11'
90+12'
Pablo Tomeo Félez

Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid

44%Possession56%
12Shots11
3On target6
3Corners3

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
  • 13Guille VallejoG
  • 26Arick BetancourtD
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 4Albert CaparrósD
  • 3José MatosD
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
  • 17Mawuli MensahM
  • 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
  • 19E. SevikyanF
  • 8KukiF
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 29O. SadikF
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
  • 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 2Toni AbadD
  • 15JoaquínM
  • 27U. KonareF
  • 1Pedro LópezG
  • 34D. MasM
Coach: José Juan Romero
Valladolid 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álvaro AcevesG
  • 14Iván AlejoD
  • 12Miguel RubioD
  • 4David TorresD
  • 27Iván GarrielD
  • 24S. JurićM
  • 21J. PonceauM
  • 7Luis ChacónM
  • 30Víctor FernándezM
  • 19Adrian ArnuncioM
  • 9Juanmi LatasaF
Substitutes
  • 17Victor BarberáF
  • 11Yeray CabanzónF
  • 18ClercD
  • 20R. DuivenF
  • 22K. de RooijF
  • 15Pablo TomeoD
  • 2TrilliD
  • 32Marcos ParriegoM
  • 5Ramón MartínezD
Coach: Fran Escribá

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid

AD Ceuta FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
  • L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
  • L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
  • L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026

Valladolid

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
  • W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Cadiz30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Eibar23 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026

What these results say

  • AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Valladolid failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21AD Ceuta FC111281025-155
15Valladolid113351616012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid

  • 17 January 2026AD Ceuta FC 0–3 ValladolidSegunda División
  • 15 August 2025Valladolid 3–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Escobar41
  • Carlos Hernández40

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AD Ceuta FC at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Miguel Latasa 53' for Valladolid, Carlos Hernández 90+11' for AD Ceuta FC. Sent off: Alejandro Balboa Bandeira (Valladolid) 87', Omar Sadik (AD Ceuta FC) 90+1'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.