Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 2-0 Celta de Vigo II.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Almeria, 28% draw, 29% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almeria at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 23Adri EmbarbaM
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 9ThalysF
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 30Jesús LópezG
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 3K. RibesD
- 6P. MeixusD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 23G. MillerM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 17H. CuencaM
- 18Joel LópezM
- 10O. MarcosF
- 7B. SomuahF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 2P. GavianD
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 15A. KibetM
- 9A. MarinF
- 4S. M. NdiayeD
- 14Jan OliverasD
Form going into Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
- W3-0Eldense17 August 2026
Celta de Vigo II
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Almeria and Celta de Vigo II
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria beat Celta de Vigo II 2–0. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo 6' for Almeria, Javier Muñoz Jiménez 18' for Almeria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.