Las Palmas vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 1-2 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 28% Burgos — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Las Palmas at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Burgos
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 12E. LoiodiceD
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 14Manu FusterM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 40Aidán Pieter Pérez KraaijeveldD
- 19Sandro RamírezF
- 9J. RecobaM
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 29Elías RomeroF
- 42Rachid Saiah BouchaibaD
- 35Adrián SuárezG
- 43Eduard Mohedano SerranoG
- 30I. MedinaF
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 5Marcelo ExpósitoM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 36I. MartinezD
- 17Mario CanteroM
- 18Saúl del CerroM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 20José GrageraM
- 1Bruno IribarneG
- 24S. LencinasM
Form going into Las Palmas vs Burgos
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Burgos
- 7 February 2026Las Palmas 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 7 September 2025Burgos 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 6 February 2023Burgos 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 1 November 2022Las Palmas 0–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 13 February 2022Las Palmas 0–2 BurgosSegunda División
The result against the call
Burgos won 2–1 at Las Palmas. The model had leaned towards a win for Las Palmas at 43% and given a win for Burgos 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jesé Rodríguez 37' for Las Palmas, Álex Forés 58' for Burgos, David Gonzalez 90+4' for Burgos.
How the call on Las Palmas v Burgos has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Las Palmas's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Las Palmas win43%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Burgos win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.