Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
FC Anyang
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–1 FC Anyang
The model makes it 41% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 29% draw, 30% FC Anyang — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.57, FC Anyang 1.20.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- W2-0away to Bucheon FC 199519 September 2026
- D2-2Gangwon FC13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pohang Steelers9 September 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC29 August 2026
FC Anyang
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen9 September 2026
- L0-3Gangwon FC6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bucheon FC 199529 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Anyang conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Anyang failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Anyang scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon5 goals3 assists
- Lee Kun-Hee3 goals1 assists
FC Anyang
- Airton5 goals
- Matheus Oliveira4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.36 for FC Anyang. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.20 for FC Anyang. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Anyang rate 0.68 and 1.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Anyang, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.2 for FC Anyang. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.83 for FC Anyang.