HNL · Regular Season - 1 · 2 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split

Gradski stadion Varazdin

The model makes it 57% NK Varazdin, 19% draw, 24% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.75, 5.26 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: NK Varazdin 2.58, HNK Hajduk Split 1.66.

Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

75%
Both teams to score
79%
Over 2.5 goals
21%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%3-1 7%2-2 7%

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 3 May 2026HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 28 February 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 29 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 13 September 2025NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 18 April 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 8 February 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 1.66 for HNK Hajduk Split. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/2.2 for HNK Hajduk Split.