NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Varazdin 2-1 HNK Hajduk Split.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% NK Varazdin, 19% draw, 24% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.75, 5.26 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Josip SilićG
- 23Frane MaglicaD
- 14Roberto PunčecD
- 4Luka ŠkaričićD
- 20Gregor SikošekD
- 24Mario MarinaM
- 28Ivan CanjugaM
- 10Aleksa LatkovićM
- 22Luka MamićM
- 38Iuri TavaresM
- 17Ivan MamutF
- 13Mario MladenovskiD
- 16Novak TepšićD
- 8Tomislav DuvnjakM
- 21Ivan PosavecM
- 5Sven LesjakD
- 1Oliver ZelenikaG
- 12Petar BočkajD
- 30Luka PosinkovićD
- 7Matej VukF
- 33Toni SilićG
- 22Mathieu AcapandiéD
- 3Roko GabrićD
- 5Alec Van HoorenbeeckD
- 32Šimun HrgovićD
- 20Alberto del MoralM
- 4Adrion PajazitiM
- 11Michele ŠegoM
- 21Rokas PukštasM
- 17Dario MelnjakM
- 10Marko LivajaF
- 15Dario MarešićD
- 7Abdoulie Sanyang BambaF
- 9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
- 23Marin ŠotičekF
- 44Dante StipicaG
- 99Davyd FesyukG
- 14Ron RaçiD
- 36Marino SkelinD
- 38Luka HodakD
Form going into NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
- L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
- W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026
- W2-0Pafos23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 2 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 May 2026HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 28 February 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 29 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 13 September 2025NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 18 April 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
- L. Mamić3 goals
- A. Latković2 goals1 assists
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.