Sportivo Ameliano
vs
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Libertad Asuncion
The model makes it 29% Sportivo Ameliano, 28% draw, 43% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 1.19, Libertad Asuncion 1.55.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Libertad Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sportivo Ameliano's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Libertad Asuncion's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sportivo Ameliano are 9th on 19 points from 19 games; Libertad Asuncion are 3rd on 33 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Nacional Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad Asuncion at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Sportivo Trinidense8 November 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
- L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-0Nacional Asuncion7 November 2026
- L0-1Cerro Porteno4 November 2026
- L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 19 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion
- 19 September 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 27 March 2026Sportivo Ameliano 2–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 28 January 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 August 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–4 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 27 April 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.55 for Libertad Asuncion. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.35 for Libertad Asuncion.
How the model reaches 43% for Libertad Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Sportivo Ameliano's ratings add 7 points and Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Sportivo Ameliano's ratings36%+7
- Libertad Asuncion's ratings43%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sportivo Ameliano at home · Libertad Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 19, Libertad Asuncion 19.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 2 there.
Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.