Rubin
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rubin 1–0 Fakel
The model makes it 52% Rubin, 28% draw, 20% Fakel — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Rubin 1.59, Fakel 0.76.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Rubin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rubin are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; Fakel are 15th on 6 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Rubin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dynamo.
- Fakel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Last 6 meetings: Rubin 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 April 2025, ended Rubin 2–1 Fakel.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubin vs Fakel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rubin at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rubin vs Fakel
Rubin
- L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
Fakel
- W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
- L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
What these results say
- Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fakel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fakel had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rubin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Fakel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 79% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rubin vs Fakel
- 27 April 2025Rubin 2–1 FakelPremier League
- 1 October 2024Rubin 0–1 FakelCup
- 27 September 2024Fakel 0–0 RubinPremier League
- 27 August 2024Fakel 0–2 RubinCup
- 26 November 2023Rubin 1–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 25 September 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–1 RubinPremier League
Leading scorers: Rubin and Fakel
Rubin
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo31
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rubin carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.01 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Rubin and 0.76 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubin rate 0.47 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.41 and 2.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubin a 0.1% chance of the title and Fakel 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rubin the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Rubin against 0.76 for Fakel. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.19 for Fakel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rubin at home · Fakel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Rubin 10, Fakel 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rubin
- at Lokomotiv6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Zenit21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Akron28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
Fakel
- vs Dynamo7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Akron21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Spartak Moscow30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Rostov6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.