Tottenham
vs
Crystal Palace
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace
The model makes it 36% Tottenham, 28% draw, 36% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tottenham 1.33, Crystal Palace 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Tottenham and Crystal Palace are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Tottenham are bottom on 3 points from 6 games; Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Tottenham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 March 2026, ended Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tottenham at 36% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 3,012 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Tottenham
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
- L2-3Aston Villa19 September 2026
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
- L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
Crystal Palace
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
What these results say
- Tottenham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tottenham had two goals or fewer.
- Crystal Palace scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tottenham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
Crystal Palace
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Crystal Palace and Tottenham have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Crystal Palace won the last one 3–1 on 5 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 5 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueTottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace - 28 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham - 11 May 2025
Premier LeagueTottenham 0–2 Crystal Palace - 27 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–0 Tottenham - 2 Mar 2024
Premier LeagueTottenham 3–1 Crystal Palace - 27 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–2 Tottenham
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| Tottenham | 0.77 | 0.99 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tottenham carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.79 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Tottenham and 1.32 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tottenham rate 0.77 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 0.96 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Crystal Palace, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tottenham against 1.32 for Crystal Palace. Tottenham's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.08 for Crystal Palace.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tottenham at home · Crystal Palace away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Tottenham 6, Crystal Palace 6.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 2 there.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Tottenham have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tottenham
- at Leeds7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Ipswich21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sunderland29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Crystal Palace
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- vs Liverpool8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.