Newport County
vs
Colchester
League Two prediction
Our model says: Newport County 0–1 Colchester
The model makes it 34% Newport County, 29% draw, 37% Colchester — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.31, Colchester 1.41.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Newport County and Colchester are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newport County vs Colchester
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colchester at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newport County vs Colchester
Newport County
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Northampton5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City1 September 2026
- D2-2Tranmere29 August 2026
Colchester
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bristol Rovers1 September 2026
- W1-0Rochdale29 August 2026
What these results say
- Newport County did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Newport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colchester failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colchester scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colchester conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Colchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Newport County and Colchester
Newport County
- S. Gwengwe4 goals
- H. Biggins2 goals2 assists
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.15 for Colchester. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Newport County and 1.41 for Colchester. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.47 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colchester rate 0.47 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.1% chance of the title and Colchester 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Newport County against 1.41 for Colchester. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.91 for Colchester.