10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Newport County vs Colchester League Two prediction & result

Rodney Parade, Newport
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Newport County 1-0 Colchester.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Newport County, 28% draw, 37% Colchester — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colchester at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newport County96%Draw4%Colchester0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Christian Doidgeout: Yahya Bamba
9'
40'
Jay Williams
48'
Beryly Lubala
58'
🔁Samuel Kuffour Jr.out: Robert Donald Hunt
66'
🔁Beryly Lubalaout: ronnie harvey
66'
🔁Oscar thornout: Bradley ihionvein
🔁Michael Adu-Pokuout: Tanatswa Nyakuhwa
71'
🔁Shaquille Gwengweout: Gerard Garner
72'
76'
Bradley ihionvein
⚽Tanatswa Nyakuhwaassist: Matty Jacobs
79'
84'
🔁Paul Digbyout: Kien Connelly
🔁Harrison Bigginsout: Matthew Smith
85'

Match stats — Newport County vs Colchester

36%Possession64%
11Shots12
4On target4
5Corners4
1.64xG0.73

Goals against chances

Newport County1 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Colchester0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Newport County 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WrightG
  • 22C. NormanD
  • 5L. JenkinsD
  • 4K. CameronD
  • 16M. JacobD
  • 24M. Dibley-DiasM
  • 6C. BrennanM
  • 23M. Adu-PokuM
  • 10H. BigginsM
  • 9S. GwengweM
  • 27C. DoidgeF
Substitutes
  • 19G. GarnerF
  • 18A. LewisD
  • 33S. MacDonaldG
  • 21T. NyakuhwaF
  • 34D. SassiD
  • 8M. SmithM
  • 20Y. BambaF
Coach: H. Mullins
Colchester 4-2-3-1
  • 22T. Lo-TutalaG
  • 44S. KuffourD
  • 5J. TuckerD
  • 6P. DigbyD
  • 3E. IandoloD
  • 26J. WilliamsM
  • 10J. PayneM
  • 12M. SesayM
  • 7H. AndersonM
  • 15B. LubalaM
  • 27O. ThornF
Substitutes
  • 2R. HuntD
  • 9B. IhionvienF
  • 24F. TerryD
  • 11L. ChiwomeF
  • 47R. HarveyM
  • 31Oscar RobertsG
  • 39K. ConnellyF
Coach: D. Cowley

Form going into Newport County vs Colchester

Newport County

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
  • W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026

Colchester

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Newport County144642017+318
23Colchester132651219-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newport County vs Colchester

  • 7 March 2026Newport County 1–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 20 December 2025Colchester 4–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 12 April 2025Newport County 0–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 14 December 2024Colchester 0–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 29 March 2024Colchester 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 3 October 2023Newport County 2–1 ColchesterLeague Two

Leading scorers: Newport County and Colchester

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Colchester

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Newport County beat Colchester 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Colchester at 37% and given a win for Newport County 35%. The goal: Tanatswa Nyakuhwa 79' for Newport County. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newport County a 21.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.6% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.6%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For Colchester the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.3% going in: 14.0% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.