Rosenborg
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Rosenborg 5-3 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Rosenborg, 26% draw, 25% Tromso — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rosenborg 2.07, Tromso 1.14.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Rosenborg vs Tromso
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosenborg vs Tromso
Line-ups
- 1L. WahlstedtG
- 16A. WitryD
- 4M. CeïdeD
- 21T. NemčíkD
- 19A. PereiraD
- 11N. SahsahM
- 17M. BomholtM
- 10O. SelnæsM
- 7S. NordliM
- 18Amin ChiakhaF
- 35E. CeïdeF
- 3T. SolheimD
- 29D. ĎurišF
- 6M. KjøløM
- 23M. MampassiD
- 15J. MortensenD
- 14J. Reitan-SundeF
- 12R. SandbergG
- 30M. SoboczynskiF
- 5H. VoldenD
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 29A. WarnerydD
- 30I. VådebuD
- 21L. HienD
- 33M. JattaD
- 37S. InnværD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 70M. BjørloM
- 15V. ErlienF
- 22H. LarsenF
- 17I. DahlqvistM
- 7L. Olden LarsenF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 27M. MikkelsenM
- 10T. NyhammerM
- 24V. OsujiD
- 8J. GrundtM
- 19L. Olden LarsenM
- 40Elias MolundD
Form going into Rosenborg vs Tromso
Rosenborg
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
- L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
- W2-1Viking14 August 2026
- W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026
Tromso
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rosenborg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 30 |
| 4 | Tromso | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Tromso
- 12 September 2026Rosenborg 5–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 6 April 2026Tromso 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 22 November 2025Tromso 1–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 27 July 2025Rosenborg 4–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 4 August 2024Rosenborg 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 20 May 2024Tromso 3–2 RosenborgEliteserien
Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Tromso
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha12 goals3 assists
- E. Ceïde5 goals5 assists
Tromso
- H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.07 goals for Rosenborg and 1.14 for Tromso; the game produced 5 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ole Selnaes 3' (Rosenborg), Amin Chiakha 5' (Rosenborg), Noah Sahsah 34' (Rosenborg), Aslak Fonn Witry 43' (Rosenborg), Noah Sahsah 47' (Rosenborg), Troy Engseth Nyhammer 71' (Tromso), Heine Asen Larsen 75' (Tromso), Ole Selnaes 77' (Tromso).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Rosenborg against 1.14 for Tromso. Rosenborg's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.57 for Tromso.