12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rosenborg vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim
Full time5 – 3

Final score: Rosenborg 5-3 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rosenborg, 27% draw, 25% Tromso — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rosenborg at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ole Selnaes
3'
⚽Amin Chiakha
5'
⚽Noah Sahsah
34'
42'
Vegard Erlien
⚽Aslak Fonn Witryassist: Ole Selnaes
43'
45'
🔁Sander Håvik Innværout: Isak·Dahlqvist
⚽Noah Sahsahassist: Mads Bomholt
47'
49'
David Edvardsson
60'
🔁David Edvardssonout: Lars Olden Larsen
60'
🔁Morten Bjorloout: Jesper Andreas Grundt
🔁Emil Konradsen Ceideout: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo
66'
70'
🔁Vegard Erlienout: Troy Engseth Nyhammer
71'
⚽Troy Engseth Nyhammerassist: Heine Asen Larsen
Leopold Wahlstedt
73'
75'
⚽Heine Asen Larsen (pen)
🔁Amin Chiakhaout: Maciej Soboczynski
75'
🔁Aslak Fonn Witryout: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen
75'
🔁Simen Bolkan Nordliout: David Duris
75'
77'
⚽Ole Selnaes (OG)
🔁Noah Sahsahout: Tobias Solheim Dahl
81'
Maciej Soboczynski
86'
88'
🔁Leon Hienout: Vince Osuji
90+3'
Vince Osuji

Match stats — Rosenborg vs Tromso

54%Possession46%
20Shots15
10On target9
4Corners4

Line-ups

Rosenborg 4-4-2
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 16A. WitryD
  • 4M. CeïdeD
  • 21T. NemčíkD
  • 19A. PereiraD
  • 11N. SahsahM
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 10O. SelnæsM
  • 7S. NordliM
  • 18Amin ChiakhaF
  • 35E. CeïdeF
Substitutes
  • 3T. SolheimD
  • 29D. ĎurišF
  • 6M. KjøløM
  • 23M. MampassiD
  • 15J. MortensenD
  • 14J. Reitan-SundeF
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
  • 5H. VoldenD
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 29A. WarnerydD
  • 30I. VådebuD
  • 21L. HienD
  • 33M. JattaD
  • 37S. InnværD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 70M. BjørloM
  • 15V. ErlienF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 7L. Olden LarsenF
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 10T. NyhammerM
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 19L. Olden LarsenM
  • 40Elias MolundD
Coach: J. Vik

Form going into Rosenborg vs Tromso

Rosenborg

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
  • L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
  • W2-1Viking14 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026

Tromso

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
  • D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Brighton27 August 2026
  • D0-0Brighton20 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rosenborg had three goals or more.
  • Tromso did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Tromso failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Rosenborg2412484631+1540
5Tromso2411764334+940

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Tromso

  • 6 April 2026Tromso 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 22 November 2025Tromso 1–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 27 July 2025Rosenborg 4–1 TromsoEliteserien
  • 4 August 2024Rosenborg 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Tromso 3–2 RosenborgEliteserien

Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Tromso

Rosenborg

GoalsAssists

  • Amin Chiakha154
  • E. Ceïde66

Tromso

GoalsAssists

  • H. Larsen104
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosenborg beat Tromso 5–3. The model had made a win for Rosenborg its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ole Selnaes 3' for Rosenborg, Amin Chiakha 5' for Rosenborg, Noah Sahsah 34' for Rosenborg, Aslak Fonn Witry 43' for Rosenborg, Noah Sahsah 47' for Rosenborg, Troy Engseth Nyhammer 71' for Tromso, Heine Asen Larsen (penalty) 75' for Tromso, Ole Selnaes (own goal) 77' for Tromso.

How the call on Rosenborg v Tromso has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Rosenborg's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Rosenborg win48%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Tromso win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.