12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Lillestrom vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Full time2 – 0

Final score: Lillestrom 2-0 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Lillestrom, 27% draw, 31% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lillestrom at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lillestrom96%Draw4%Valerenga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ruben Gabrielsenassist: Frederik Elkaer
25'
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
29'
41'
Sebastian Jarl
58'
🔁Dennis Gjengaarout: Gabriel Rajkovic
58'
🔁Ghayas Zahidout: Odin Thiago Holm
70'
Håkon Sjåtil
70'
🔁Carl Langeout: Petter Strand
70'
🔁Lucas Janus Ravn-Harenout: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
🔁Daniel Bassiout: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
73'
🔁Fredrik Gulbrandsenout: Thomas Lehne Olsen
73'
Frederik Elkaer
80'
84'
🔁Mathias Grundetjernout: Håvard Nielsen
🔁Eric Kitolanoout: Filip Ottosson
86'
🔁Yildren Ibrahimajout: Stian Kristiansen
90+4'
90+4'
Odin Thiago Holm
90+5'
Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
⚽Thomas Lehne Olsen
90+6'

Match stats — Lillestrom vs Valerenga

51%Possession49%
7Shots17
2On target3
6Corners6

Line-ups

Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 22D. BassiM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 20VáM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
Substitutes
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
Coach: H. Ødegaard
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 3H. SjåtilD
  • 4A. Kiil OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 2K. FinnssonD
  • 17M. GrundetjernM
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 26D. GjengaarF
  • 11G. ZahidF
Substitutes
  • 7H. NielsenF
  • 13S. LønningG
  • 15O. HolmM
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 37I. NäsbergD
  • 90O. SaeterF
Coach: J. Moesgaard

Form going into Lillestrom vs Valerenga

Lillestrom

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
  • L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
  • W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026

Valerenga

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026
  • D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
  • L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
  • L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026

What these results say

  • Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Lillestrom.
  • Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Valerenga had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Lillestrom2412393533+239
10Valerenga2485113946-729

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Valerenga

  • 19 April 2026Valerenga 0–2 LillestromEliteserien
  • 22 October 2023Lillestrom 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 1 May 2023Valerenga 3–4 LillestromEliteserien
  • 4 September 2022Valerenga 3–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 25 May 2022Lillestrom 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien

Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Valerenga

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85
  • F. Gulbrandsen71

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lillestrom beat Valerenga 2–0. The model had made a win for Lillestrom its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ruben Gabrielsen 25' for Lillestrom, Thomas Lehne Olsen 90+6' for Lillestrom.

How the call on Lillestrom v Valerenga has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Lillestrom's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lillestrom win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Valerenga win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.