Regular Season - 21 · 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Lillestrom vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Full time2 – 0

Final score: Lillestrom 2-0 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lillestrom, 28% draw, 28% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.82, Valerenga 1.18.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Lillestrom vs Valerenga

59%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lillestrom at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lillestrom96%Draw4%Valerenga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ruben Gabrielsenassist: Frederik Elkaer
25'
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
29'
41'
Sebastian Jarl
58'
🔁Dennis Gjengaarout: Gabriel Rajkovic
58'
🔁Ghayas Zahidout: Odin Thiago Holm
70'
Håkon Sjåtil
70'
🔁Carl Langeout: Petter Strand
70'
🔁Lucas Janus Ravn-Harenout: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
🔁Daniel Bassiout: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
73'
🔁Fredrik Gulbrandsenout: Thomas Lehne Olsen
73'
Frederik Elkaer
80'
84'
🔁Mathias Grundetjernout: Håvard Nielsen
🔁Eric Kitolanoout: Filip Ottosson
86'
🔁Yildren Ibrahimajout: Stian Kristiansen
90+4'
90+4'
Odin Thiago Holm
90+5'
Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
⚽Thomas Lehne Olsen
90+6'

Match stats — Lillestrom vs Valerenga

51%Possession49%
7Shots17
2On target3
6Corners6

Line-ups

Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 22D. BassiM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 20VáM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
Substitutes
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
Coach: H. Ødegaard
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 3H. SjåtilD
  • 4A. Kiil OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 2K. FinnssonD
  • 17M. GrundetjernM
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 26D. GjengaarF
  • 11G. ZahidF
Substitutes
  • 7H. NielsenF
  • 13S. LønningG
  • 15O. HolmM
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 37I. NäsbergD
  • 90O. SaeterF
Coach: J. Moesgaard

Form going into Lillestrom vs Valerenga

Lillestrom

  • W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
  • L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
  • L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026

Valerenga

  • D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026
  • D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
  • L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lillestrom2010282826+232
11Valerenga2064103342-922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Valerenga

  • 12 September 2026Lillestrom 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 19 April 2026Valerenga 0–2 LillestromEliteserien
  • 22 October 2023Lillestrom 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 1 May 2023Valerenga 3–4 LillestromEliteserien
  • 4 September 2022Valerenga 3–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 25 May 2022Lillestrom 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien

Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Valerenga

Lillestrom

  • Vá5 goals5 assists

Valerenga

  • L. Haren8 goals1 assists
  • C. Lange6 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.82 goals for Lillestrom and 1.18 for Valerenga; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ruben Gabrielsen 25' (Lillestrom), Thomas Lehne Olsen 90' (Lillestrom).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.18 for Valerenga. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.51 for Valerenga.