Bucheon FC 1995
vs
Jeju United FC
K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 Jeju United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bucheon FC 1995, 29% draw, 30% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 1.51, Jeju United FC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucheon FC 1995 at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC
Bucheon FC 1995
- L1-2away to Incheon United8 September 2026
- L0-5Daejeon Citizen5 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang29 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul25 August 2026
Jeju United FC
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Daejeon Citizen30 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 32 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC
Bucheon FC 1995
- Jefferson Galego4 goals1 assists
Jeju United FC
- Matheus Aiás3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bucheon FC 1995 carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.39 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.14 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.63 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.58 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeju United FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.14 for Jeju United FC. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.47 for Jeju United FC.