Jeonbuk Motors
vs
FC Seoul
K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 FC Seoul.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Jeonbuk Motors, 30% draw, 34% FC Seoul — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.29, FC Seoul 1.22.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Jeonbuk Motors vs FC Seoul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeonbuk Motors at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jeonbuk Motors vs FC Seoul
Jeonbuk Motors
- D1-1away to Gangwon FC9 September 2026
- W2-0Pohang Steelers5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 August 2026
FC Seoul
- L0-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC8 September 2026
- W1-0Incheon United5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Gwangju FC30 August 2026
- W1-0Bucheon FC 199525 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 43 |
| 1 | FC Seoul | 29 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Jeonbuk Motors and FC Seoul
Jeonbuk Motors
- Lee Seung-Woo4 goals3 assists
- Tiago Orobó3 goals
FC Seoul
- P. Klimala4 goals
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.7 for FC Seoul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.22 for FC Seoul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.67 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Seoul rate 0.88 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Seoul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeonbuk Motors a 0% chance of the title and FC Seoul 100%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeonbuk Motors the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.22 for FC Seoul. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.18 for FC Seoul.