Rosenborg vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rosenborg, 25% draw, 23% Sandefjord — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rosenborg at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. WahlstedtG
- 22J. SvenssonD
- 4M. CeïdeD
- 21T. NemčíkD
- 19A. PereiraD
- 11N. SahsahM
- 17M. BomholtM
- 10O. SelnæsM
- 6M. KjøløM
- 18Amin ChiakhaF
- 35E. CeïdeF
- 16A. WitryD
- 3T. SolheimD
- 29D. ĎurišF
- 8I. FossumM
- 9D. IslamovićF
- 23M. MampassiD
- 15J. MortensenD
- 7S. NordliM
- 12R. SandbergG
- 30E. HadayaG
- 2M. HellanD
- 13R. HoltenD
- 44X. LambrixD
- 5G. HøjbjergD
- 10E. GigovićM
- 8T. BørkeeietM
- 6S. MørkM
- 7E. PatoulidisF
- 24S. MathisenF
- 27J. DunsbyF
- 19Bendik BerntsenF
- 3V. EgeliD
- 1A. GrønnebergG
- 16H. KrogelienD
- 4F. PedersenD
- 14E. PettersenM
- 31H. B. SkrettebergD
- 37J. VesterM
Form going into Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
Rosenborg
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Kristiansund BK19 September 2026
- W5-3Tromso12 September 2026
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
- L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
- W2-1Viking14 August 2026
Sandefjord
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF16 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rosenborg had three goals or more.
- Rosenborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 46 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
- 18 April 2026Sandefjord 0–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 29 October 2025Rosenborg 1–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 6 July 2025Sandefjord 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 29 September 2024Sandefjord 0–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 1 April 2024Rosenborg 2–0 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Sandefjord
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha184
Sandefjord
GoalsAssists
- E. Patoulidis83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosenborg and Sandefjord drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rosenborg at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Amin Chiakha (penalty) 5' for Rosenborg, Vetle Walle Egeli 73' for Sandefjord. Sent off: Tobias Borkeeiet (Sandefjord) 51', Ole Selnaes (Rosenborg) 61'. On expected goals it finished 2.75–0.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rosenborg a 62.6% chance to finish in the top four: 71.2% after a win, 56.2% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 56.2%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
For Sandefjord the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.8% going in: 2.9% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 10.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.2%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rosenborg v Sandefjord has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Rosenborg's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Rosenborg win52%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Sandefjord win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.