Regular Season - 23 · 9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Brann vs Viking Eliteserien prediction

Brann Stadion, Bergen

Our model says: Brann 1–2 Viking

The model makes it 31% Brann, 27% draw, 42% Viking — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Brann 1.42, Viking 1.86.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
Brann31%3.23
Draw27%3.70
Viking42%2.38

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Brann vs Viking

64%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Brann win Draw Viking win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read Brann first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 49%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Viking at 42% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Brann vs Viking

Brann

  • W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
  • L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
  • W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026

Viking

  • W3-0Lillestrom20 September 2026
  • W8-1Kristiansund BK13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Brann2192103932+729
1Viking2116235420+3450

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Brann vs Viking

  • 18 April 2026Viking 3–2 BrannEliteserien
  • 5 October 2025Viking 3–0 BrannEliteserien
  • 13 July 2025Brann 3–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 14 February 2025Brann 2–2 VikingFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 December 2024Brann 1–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 14 April 2024Viking 1–1 BrannEliteserien

The full Brann vs Viking record →

Leading scorers: Brann and Viking

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals3 assists
  • K. Ingason6 goals2 assists

Viking

  • P. Christiansen11 goals6 assists
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Brann carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.88 for Viking. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Brann and 1.86 for Viking. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Brann rate 0.80 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viking rate 1.05 and 0.99.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brann a 0% chance of the title and Viking 42.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Viking the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Brann against 1.86 for Viking. Brann's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.99 for Viking.