Cobresal
vs
Universidad de Concepcion
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cobresal 2–1 Universidad de Concepcion
The model makes it 47% Cobresal, 28% draw, 25% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cobresal 1.86, Universidad de Concepcion 1.04.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cobresal at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
- W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportes Limache7 September 2026
- W2-0Palestino28 August 2026
- D3-3away to Deportes La Serena23 August 2026
- L0-2Concepción16 August 2026
Universidad de Concepcion
- L1-2away to Palestino6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido2 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Chile30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Everton de Vina24 August 2026
- L0-2Deportes La Serena14 August 2026
What these results say
- Cobresal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
- S. Pino7 goals1 assists
- J. Brea6 goals1 assists
Universidad de Concepcion
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cobresal carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.18 for Universidad de Concepcion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Cobresal and 1.04 for Universidad de Concepcion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cobresal rate 0.66 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad de Concepcion rate 0.44 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cobresal the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Cobresal against 1.04 for Universidad de Concepcion. Cobresal's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.7 for Universidad de Concepcion.