10 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion Primera División prediction & result

Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, El Salvador
Referee: Gaston Philippe
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cobresal 1-1 Universidad de Concepcion.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Cobresal, 25% draw, 21% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cobresal at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cobresal0%Draw4%Universidad de Concepcion96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Fuentes
41'
Cesar Yanis
44'
🔁Martín Espinozaout: Franco Frias
45'
45'
🔁T. Rocoout: Iam Gonzalez
🔁Matias Alejandro Olguín Luceroout: Alejandro Santander
54'
•Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz
62'
Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz
62'
🔁Leroy Janpol Morales Napaout: Aaron Astudillo
68'
76'
🔁Facundo Materout: Luis Rojas
77'
🔁Cecilio Watermanout: Rogelio Funes
79'
🔁Yerco Oyanedelout: Antonio Diaz
80'
Bryan Ogaz
88'
⚽Luis Rojasassist: Iam Gonzalez
Aaron Astudillo
90'
90'
Luis Rojas
90+5'
🔁Harol Salgadoout: diego sabando
⚽Guillermo Pacheco
90+5'

Match stats — Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

47%Possession53%
23Shots16
8On target3
10Corners5
1.67xG0.77

Goals against chances

Cobresal1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Universidad de Concepcion1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cobresal 4-2-3-1
  • 36M. OlguinG
  • 23G. PachecoD
  • 20J. TiznadoD
  • 4R. SandovalD
  • 15A. CastilloD
  • 17J. FuentesM
  • 38F. VillagránM
  • 7C. YanisM
  • 39L. MoralesM
  • 11J. BreaM
  • 37Martin EspinozaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. AstudilloD
  • 12J. SantanderG
  • 6E. ValenciaM
  • 13Benjamin ValenzuelaM
  • 3Benjamin VillarroelD
  • 14R. HuertaF
  • 32F. FríasF
  • 43V. CamposD
  • 8S. PinoF
Coach: G. Huerta
Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
  • 1J. BrounG
  • 32B. SaezD
  • 17M. GonzálezD
  • 3M. BarbieriD
  • 15Y. OyanedelD
  • 8F. MaterM
  • 16B. OgazM
  • 10J. FuentealbaM
  • 25H. SalgadoF
  • 18C. WatermanF
  • 26T. RocoF
Substitutes
  • 21J. EspejoD
  • 22R. Funes MoriF
  • 7I. GonzálezF
  • 34F. HerreraM
  • 2Páez PáezM
  • 20L. RojasM
  • 29D. SabandoF
  • 11A. DíazF
  • 13J. SanhuezaG
Coach: Cristián Muñoz

Form going into Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

Primera División

  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026

Universidad de Concepcion

Primera División

  • L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cobresal2776143950-1127
15Universidad de Concepcion2775152249-2726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

  • 9 May 2026Cobresal 2–1 Universidad de ConcepcionCopa De La Liga
  • 13 April 2026Universidad de Concepcion 1–0 CobresalPrimera División
  • 26 March 2026Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 CobresalCopa De La Liga
  • 8 December 2020Cobresal 3–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 5 March 2020Universidad de Concepcion 2–2 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino81
  • J. Brea71

Universidad de Concepcion

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cobresal at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Rojas 88' for Universidad de Concepcion, Guillermo Pacheco 90+5' for Cobresal. Sent off: Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz (Cobresal) 62'. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cobresal a 54.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.9% after a win, 64.3% after a draw, 74.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.3%, 10.1 points higher than before the match.

For Universidad de Concepcion the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 92.2% going in: 79.8% after a win, 90.9% after a draw, 96.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 90.9%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cobresal v Universidad de Concepcion has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Cobresal's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Cobresal win54%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Universidad de Concepcion win21%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.