10 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Huachipato vs O'Higgins Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Talcahuano
Referee: Cristian Galaz Sepulveda
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Huachipato 2-0 O'Higgins.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Huachipato, 27% draw, 30% O'Higgins — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Huachipato at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Huachipato99%Draw1%O'Higgins0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Leandro Diaz
Claudio Sepúlveda
16'
⚽Maximiliano Rodríguezassist: H. Antiñirre
45+2'
60'
🔁Santiago Federico Tolozaout: Joaquín Tapia
🔁Kevin Altezout: Ezequiel Martin Canete
64'
⚽Claudio Sepúlvedaassist: Maximiliano Rodríguez
65'
Sergio Nunez
68'
🔁H. Antiñirreout: Claudio Torres
70'
70'
🔁Felipe Faundezout: Cristián Morales
70'
🔁Bastián Yáñezout: Bryan Rabello
70'
🔁Tomas Avilésout: Ignacio Schor
73'
🔁Thiago Vecinoout: Esteban Moreira
🔁Maximiliano Rodríguezout: Luciano Arriagada
78'
🔁Maicol Leonout: Carlos Herrera
78'
🔁Sergio Nunezout: Lionel Altamirano
78'
88'
Cristián Morales

Match stats — Huachipato vs O'Higgins

44%Possession56%
8Shots19
4On target7
6Corners3
1.14xG0.82

Goals against chances

Huachipato2 from 1.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
O'Higgins0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Huachipato 4-1-3-2
  • 1S. MellaG
  • 20C. ToroD
  • 8P. VargasD
  • 5R. CarocaD
  • 26H. AntiñirreD
  • 6C. SepúlvedaM
  • 7M. BriceñoM
  • 24M. LeónM
  • 30K. AltezM
  • 19S. NúñezF
  • 15M. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 29C. TorresM
  • 12C. BravoG
  • 16L. ArriagadaF
  • 9L. AltamiranoF
  • 10E. CañeteM
  • 22Javier Nicolás Cárcamo CifuentesM
  • 11J. FigueroaF
  • 21C. HerreraM
  • 3B. MelladoD
Coach: J. García
O'Higgins 4-1-4-1
  • 31O. CarabalíG
  • 3Felipe Andrés Faúndez GonzálezD
  • 22A. RobledoD
  • 21N. GarridoD
  • 20L. DíazD
  • 17T. AvilésM
  • 28W. BouM
  • 34B. LeivaM
  • 7S. TolozaM
  • 29B. YáñezM
  • 32T. VecinoF
Substitutes
  • 2C. MoralesD
  • 18E. MoreiraF
  • 27J. MovilloD
  • 1J. PeñaG
  • 5G. PintoM
  • 10B. RabelloM
  • 25I. SchorF
  • 14M. MaturanaM
  • 30J. TapiaF
Coach: Lucas Bovaglio

Form going into Huachipato vs O'Higgins

Huachipato

Primera División

  • W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026

O'Higgins

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Huachipato2696113441-733
12O'Higgins2794143242-1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Huachipato vs O'Higgins

  • 11 April 2026O'Higgins 0–2 HuachipatoPrimera División
  • 21 July 2025Huachipato 2–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
  • 21 March 2025Huachipato 2–1 O'HigginsCopa Chile
  • 15 February 2025O'Higgins 0–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
  • 9 February 2025O'Higgins 0–0 HuachipatoCopa Chile

Leading scorers: Huachipato and O'Higgins

Huachipato

GoalsAssists

  • L. Altamirano91

O'Higgins

GoalsAssists

  • A. Castillo90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Huachipato beat O'Higgins 2–0. The model had made a win for Huachipato its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Maximiliano Rodríguez 45+2' for Huachipato, Claudio Sepúlveda 65' for Huachipato. On expected goals it finished 1.14–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Huachipato a 10.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.4% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 18.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.4%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

For O'Higgins the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.8% going in: 6.3% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 23.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.5%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Huachipato v O'Higgins has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Huachipato's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Huachipato win43%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. O'Higgins win30%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.