Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia
The model makes it 41% Gimnasia Mendoza, 28% draw, 31% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 1.49, Independiente Rivadavia 1.20.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Gimnasia Mendoza are 7th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 20 points from 14 games; Independiente Rivadavia are 9th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 19 points from 13 games.
- Gimnasia Mendoza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Platense.
- Independiente Rivadavia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Tigre.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Independiente Rivadavia 5–1 Gimnasia Mendoza.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-2Platense23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata5 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2Tigre17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 26 April 2026Independiente Rivadavia 5–1 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 October 2022Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 3 July 2022Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 24 February 2022Independiente Rivadavia 2–0 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina
- 30 September 2018Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 11 August 2015Independiente Rivadavia 4–2 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
The full Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica140
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
- J. Florentín71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia Mendoza carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.63 for Independiente Rivadavia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 1.20 for Independiente Rivadavia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.78 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.96 and 1.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 1.20 for Independiente Rivadavia. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.55 for Independiente Rivadavia.
How the model reaches 41% for Gimnasia Mendoza to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Gimnasia Mendoza to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Gimnasia Mendoza's ratings take away 12 points and Independiente Rivadavia's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Gimnasia Mendoza's ratings29%−12
- Independiente Rivadavia's ratings41%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gimnasia Mendoza at home · Independiente Rivadavia away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Gimnasia Mendoza 29, Independiente Rivadavia 30.
Gimnasia Mendoza score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Independiente Rivadavia have let in 9 there.
Independiente Rivadavia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (12 goals); Gimnasia Mendoza have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.