FC Rostov
vs
Rubin
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 61% FC Rostov, 21% draw, 18% Rubin — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Rostov 2.10, Rubin 1.05.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Rostov
- D0-0away to CSKA Moscow8 August 2026
- W4-2away to Rodina Moskva31 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC Orenburg26 July 2026
Rubin
- W2-1away to Akron1 August 2026
- L1-3FC Krasnodar26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Rostov | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Rubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Rostov
- A. Langovich1 goals2 assists
Rubin
- M. Daku2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Rostov carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.11 for Rubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Rostov L-W-D; Rubin L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for FC Rostov and 1.05 for Rubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Rostov rate 0.58 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubin rate 0.43 and 1.92.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Rostov the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.05 for Rubin. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.92 for Rubin.