CSKA Moscow
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 57% CSKA Moscow, 17% draw, 26% Fakel — fair odds of 1.75, 5.88 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2 (6%).
Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 3.12, Fakel 2.15.
Both teams to score: 85%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%, under 2.5: 10%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA Moscow
- D0-0FC Rostov8 August 2026
- D1-1Krylia Sovetov1 August 2026
- W2-1Baltika24 July 2026
Fakel
- L2-3away to FC Krasnodar2 August 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Makhachkala25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Fakel | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Moscow carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.48 for Fakel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA Moscow W-D-D; Fakel L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.12 goals for CSKA Moscow and 2.15 for Fakel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Moscow rate 0.72 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fakel rate 0.95 and 2.29.
That points to 90% for over two and a half goals and 85% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-2 (6%), 2-2 (6%), 3-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.12 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 2.15 for Fakel. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/2.29 for Fakel.