15 August 2026, 13:15 UTC

CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

VEB Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 0

Final score: CSKA Moscow 1-0 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% CSKA Moscow, 20% draw, 24% Fakel — fair odds of 1.79, 5.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA Moscow at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Moscow95%Draw5%Fakel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁T. Musaevout: L. Gondou
46'
Matheus Alves
46'
52'
V. Yakimov
V. Torop
54'
54'
A. Gnapi Dable
64'
🔁A. Sutorminout: A. Bagamaev
64'
🔁N. Giorgobianiout: B. Magomedov
🔁M. Popovicout: I. Firov
65'
🔁Matheus Alvesout: D. Kozlov
66'
⚽I. Oblyakov (pen)
71'
73'
🔁I. Alshinout: A. Kovalev
73'
🔁A. Gnapi Dableout: B. Pusi
I. Firov
76'
84'
🔁I. Yurganovout: M. Uridia
🔁D. Krugovoyout: K. Glebov
90'
90+4'
A. Gabaraev

Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Fakel

56%Possession44%
9Shots9
3On target0
7Corners4

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 49Vladislav ToropG
  • 22Milan GajićD
  • 4João VictorD
  • 79Kirill DanilovD
  • 27MoisésD
  • 31Matvey KislyakM
  • 3Danil KrugovoyM
  • 10Ivan OblyakovM
  • 7Matheus AlvesM
  • 20Matija PopovićM
  • 11Tamerlan MusaevF
Substitutes
  • 32Luciano GondouF
  • 62Imran FirovM
  • 18Danila KozlovM
  • 17Kirill GlebovF
  • 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
  • 39Maksim BoriskoG
  • 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
  • 90Matvey LukinD
  • 2Matheus ReisD
Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov
Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1Daniil FrolkinG
  • 5Albert GabaraevD
  • 20Igor YurganovD
  • 53Matvey BardachevD
  • 55Darko TodorovićM
  • 23Vyacheslav YakimovM
  • 52Ravil NetfullinM
  • 10Ilnur AlshinM
  • 99Nikolay GiorgobianiF
  • 9Axel GnapiF
  • 11Alexey SutorminF
Substitutes
  • 97Butta MagomedovM
  • 8Abdula BagamaevM
  • 17Anton KovalevM
  • 19Belajdi PusiF
  • 93Merabi UridiaF
  • 96Igor ObukhovG
  • 35Vyacheslav DorovskikhG
  • 22Houdaifa El MahasniD
  • 44Yuriy ZhuravlevD
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko

Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Fakel

CSKA Moscow

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0FC Rostov8 August 2026

Fakel

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5CSKA Moscow147522316+726
16Fakel141310923-146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Fakel

  • 17 February 2025CSKA Moscow 1–1 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 December 2024Fakel 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 26 October 2024CSKA Moscow 0–0 FakelPremier League
  • 7 April 2024CSKA Moscow 4–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 5 February 2024CSKA Moscow 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Fakel

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34
  • K. Glebov31

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA Moscow beat Fakel 1–0. The model had made a win for CSKA Moscow its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: I. Oblyakov (penalty) 71' for CSKA Moscow.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.