Rochdale vs Swindon Town League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rochdale 1-0 Swindon Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rochdale, 29% draw, 34% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rochdale at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Line-ups
- 1Nils RammingG
- 26S. SherringD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 14E. FrancisM
- 18J. SmithM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 33S. BeckwithD
- 9E. DieseruvweF
- 19L. HannantM
- 7C. HayesF
- 40I. HendersonF
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 1C. RipleyG
- 6J. BallD
- 5S. NegruD
- 21K. MajekodunmiD
- 34B. KirkmanD
- 7T. NicholsM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 27A. MundaM
- 26D. ButlerM
- 23A. DrinanF
- 29A. HackfordF
- 14D. ButterworthM
- 8O. ClarkeM
- 18J. DebayoD
- 15J. HungboF
- 22J. PearmanM
- 12Lewis Moore WardG
- 39L. MillardF
Form going into Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Rochdale
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
Swindon Town
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Swindon Town
- 18 March 2023Rochdale 4–4 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 20 August 2022Swindon Town 3–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 2 April 2022Rochdale 0–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 16 October 2021Swindon Town 2–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 13 April 2021Rochdale 2–1 Swindon TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Swindon Town
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rochdale beat Swindon Town 1–0. The model had made a win for Rochdale its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Cian Hayes 88' for Rochdale. Sent off: Kaelan Majekodunmi (Swindon Town) 85'.
How the call on Rochdale v Swindon Town has moved
First published on 23 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Rochdale's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Rochdale win37%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Swindon Town win34%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.