Rochdale
vs
Swindon Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rochdale 1–2 Swindon Town
The model makes it 35% Rochdale, 29% draw, 36% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rochdale 1.39, Swindon Town 1.41.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Rochdale and Swindon Town are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swindon Town at 36% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Rochdale
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
- L1-4Gillingham5 September 2026
- W3-0Shrewsbury1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colchester29 August 2026
Swindon Town
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
- W3-1Colchester5 September 2026
- W3-1Port Vale1 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oldham29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Swindon Town
- 18 March 2023Rochdale 4–4 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 20 August 2022Swindon Town 3–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 2 April 2022Rochdale 0–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 16 October 2021Swindon Town 2–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 13 April 2021Rochdale 2–1 Swindon TownLeague One
- 12 September 2020Swindon Town 3–1 RochdaleLeague One
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Swindon Town
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Swindon Town
- A. Drinan5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rochdale carry a model rating of 6 against 6.1 for Swindon Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Rochdale and 1.41 for Swindon Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rochdale rate 0.42 in attack and 2.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swindon Town rate 0.51 and 2.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rochdale a 0.1% chance of the title and Swindon Town 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swindon Town the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rochdale against 1.41 for Swindon Town. Rochdale's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.28 for Swindon Town.