Walsall
vs
Crawley Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Walsall 1–0 Crawley Town
The model makes it 47% Walsall, 29% draw, 24% Crawley Town — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Walsall 1.68, Crawley Town 0.86.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Walsall vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Walsall at 47% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Walsall vs Crawley Town
Walsall
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Crewe1 September 2026
- W3-2Accrington Stanley29 August 2026
Crawley Town
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Northampton1 September 2026
- L0-2Bristol Rovers29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Walsall vs Crawley Town
- 27 January 2026Walsall 0–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 11 October 2025Crawley Town 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 13 February 2024Crawley Town 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 24 October 2023Walsall 1–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 29 April 2023Crawley Town 0–0 WalsallLeague Two
- 19 November 2022Walsall 2–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Walsall and Crawley Town
Walsall
- A. Pressley4 goals
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Walsall carry a model rating of 6.17 against 5.93 for Crawley Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Walsall and 0.86 for Crawley Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Walsall rate 0.48 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crawley Town rate 0.38 and 2.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Walsall a 13.3% chance of the title and Crawley Town 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Walsall the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Walsall against 0.86 for Crawley Town. Walsall's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.41 for Crawley Town.