AFC Wimbledon
vs
Stevenage
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 30% AFC Wimbledon, 33% draw, 37% Stevenage — fair odds of 3.33, 3.03 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 0.88, Stevenage 1.10.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stevenage at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
AFC Wimbledon
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
- L1-4away to Burton Albion2 September 2026
- W1-0Wigan30 August 2026
Stevenage
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
- W2-1Luton10 September 2026
- W5-1away to Barnsley5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Peterborough1 September 2026
- D2-2Doncaster29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
- 14 March 2026Stevenage 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 26 December 2025AFC Wimbledon 0–0 StevenageLeague One
- 2 September 2025AFC Wimbledon 1–5 StevenageEFL Trophy
- 5 September 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–1 StevenageEFL Trophy
- 15 April 2023Stevenage 2–1 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 28 February 2023AFC Wimbledon 2–3 StevenageLeague Two
Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage
AFC Wimbledon
- M. Hippolyte3 goals
Stevenage
- D. Kemp3 goals1 assists
- O. Sanderson3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AFC Wimbledon carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.31 for Stevenage. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.88 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.10 for Stevenage. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AFC Wimbledon rate 0.40 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stevenage rate 0.48 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AFC Wimbledon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AFC Wimbledon a 0.5% chance of the title and Stevenage 1.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.1 for Stevenage. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.45 for Stevenage.