Salford City
vs
Fleetwood Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Salford City 1–0 Fleetwood Town
The model makes it 38% Salford City, 31% draw, 31% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Salford City 1.27, Fleetwood Town 1.04.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Salford City vs Fleetwood Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Salford City at 38% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Salford City vs Fleetwood Town
Salford City
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham12 September 2026
- W1-0Port Vale5 September 2026
- W2-1Newport County1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury29 August 2026
Fleetwood Town
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
- W2-0Shrewsbury5 September 2026
- D1-1Oldham1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grimsby29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Fleetwood Town
- 29 December 2025Salford City 0–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 9 December 2025Fleetwood Town 1–1 Salford CityLeague Two
- 18 January 2025Salford City 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 29 October 2024Fleetwood Town 2–2 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Fleetwood Town
Salford City
- J. Powell3 goals1 assists
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Salford City carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.15 for Fleetwood Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Salford City and 1.04 for Fleetwood Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Salford City rate 0.47 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fleetwood Town rate 0.46 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fleetwood Town, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 0.8% chance of the title and Fleetwood Town 5.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Salford City against 1.04 for Fleetwood Town. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.86 for Fleetwood Town.