Gillingham vs Newport County League Two prediction & result
Final score: Gillingham 0-0 Newport County.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gillingham, 28% draw, 32% Newport County — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gillingham at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gillingham vs Newport County
Line-ups
- 1O. WrightG
- 5A. SmithD
- 19O. BecklesD
- 26L. DobbsD
- 22N. FreemanM
- 24H. WaldockM
- 14R. McKenzieM
- 16J. BrophyM
- 12G. McClearyM
- 10Ronan HaleM
- 11L. SillahF
- 6E. ColemanM
- 23B. DackM
- 39T. EavesF
- 8A. LittleM
- 40R. LuthraG
- 18S. KendallM
- 20J. DaleyD
- 1J. WrightG
- 22C. NormanD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 12Joe ThomasD
- 16M. JacobD
- 23M. Adu-PokuM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 24M. Dibley-DiasM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 27C. DoidgeF
- 19G. GarnerF
- 18A. LewisD
- 33S. MacDonaldG
- 34D. SassiD
- 8M. SmithM
- 17Alfie MerrittD
- 20Y. BambaF
Form going into Gillingham vs Newport County
Gillingham
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
Newport County
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 20 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Newport County
- 17 January 2026Gillingham 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 1 November 2025Newport County 1–1 GillinghamFA Cup
- 20 September 2025Newport County 1–3 GillinghamLeague Two
- 4 March 2025Newport County 3–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 22 October 2024Gillingham 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Gillingham and Newport County
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale61
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gillingham and Newport County drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gillingham at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Gillingham v Newport County has moved
First published on 23 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Gillingham's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Gillingham win40%▼ −3
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Newport County win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.