Gillingham
vs
Newport County
League Two prediction
Our model says: Gillingham 2–1 Newport County
The model makes it 43% Gillingham, 27% draw, 30% Newport County — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gillingham 1.81, Newport County 1.30.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gillingham vs Newport County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gillingham at 43% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gillingham vs Newport County
Gillingham
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
- W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Rochdale5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield1 September 2026
- D1-1Northampton29 August 2026
Newport County
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Northampton5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City1 September 2026
- D2-2Tranmere29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Newport County
- 17 January 2026Gillingham 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 1 November 2025Newport County 1–1 GillinghamFA Cup
- 20 September 2025Newport County 1–3 GillinghamLeague Two
- 4 March 2025Newport County 3–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 22 October 2024Gillingham 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 17 February 2024Newport County 1–0 GillinghamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Gillingham and Newport County
Gillingham
- J. Brophy3 goals
Newport County
- S. Gwengwe4 goals
- H. Biggins2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gillingham carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.02 for Newport County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Gillingham and 1.30 for Newport County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gillingham rate 0.50 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newport County rate 0.47 and 2.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gillingham a 5.7% chance of the title and Newport County 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gillingham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Gillingham against 1.3 for Newport County. Gillingham's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.49 for Newport County.