Grimsby
vs
Shrewsbury
League Two prediction
Our model says: Grimsby 2–0 Shrewsbury
The model makes it 54% Grimsby, 26% draw, 20% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Grimsby 2.01, Shrewsbury 0.78.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 54% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
Grimsby
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cheltenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Accrington Stanley1 September 2026
- D2-2Fleetwood Town29 August 2026
Shrewsbury
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
- W2-0Northampton12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Rochdale1 September 2026
- W1-0Salford City29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Grimsby | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
- 29 December 2025Grimsby 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 9 December 2025Shrewsbury 1–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 12 August 2025Grimsby 3–1 ShrewsburyLeague Cup
- 15 December 2015Shrewsbury 1–0 GrimsbyFA Cup
- 7 December 2015Grimsby 0–0 ShrewsburyFA Cup
Leading scorers: Grimsby and Shrewsbury
Grimsby
- K. Green3 goals2 assists
Shrewsbury
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Grimsby carry a model rating of 6.32 against 5.94 for Shrewsbury. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Grimsby and 0.78 for Shrewsbury. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grimsby rate 0.60 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shrewsbury rate 0.37 and 2.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grimsby a 17.3% chance of the title and Shrewsbury 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Grimsby against 0.78 for Shrewsbury. Grimsby's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.3 for Shrewsbury.