3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury League Two prediction & result

Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Grimsby 1-2 Shrewsbury.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Grimsby, 26% draw, 21% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Grimsby0%Draw6%Shrewsbury94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽George Lloydassist: William Boyle
26'
Kevin Berkoe
50'
Isaac Fletcher
56'
Kian McMahon-Brown
Cian Doyle
58'
60'
⚽Kian McMahon-Brownassist: William Boyle
🔁Charles Vernamout: Iwan Morgan
61'
🔁Cian Doyleout: Finn Cartwright
61'
74'
Josh Ruffels
⚽Finn Cartwrightassist: Iwan Morgan
75'
75'
George Lloyd
80'
🔁Isaac Fletcherout: Josh Davison
80'
🔁J. Turner-Cookout: will gray
🔁Jamie Walkerout: Ryley Reynolds
90'
🔁Andy Cookout: Sonny Finch
90'
90+4'
Josh Davison

Match stats — Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

64%Possession36%
21Shots9
5On target4
8Corners6

Line-ups

Grimsby 4-2-3-1
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 17C. McJannetD
  • 26E. PrutiD
  • 3J. SweeneyD
  • 7J. WalkerM
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 14J. AmaluzorM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 39A. CookF
Substitutes
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 10S. FinchF
  • 12J. FoulkesD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 9Iwan MorganF
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
  • 28F. CartwrightM
Coach: D. Artell
Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
  • 1William Michael BrookG
  • 6S. StubbsD
  • 5W. BoyleD
  • 3J. RuffelsD
  • 2L. HooleM
  • 10T. SangM
  • 7J. Turner-CookeM
  • 11K. BerkoeM
  • 18K. M. BrownM
  • 9G. LloydF
  • 8Isaac Andrew FletcherF
Substitutes
  • 21will grayM
  • 24L. SousaD
  • 27J. GbodeF
  • 4Isaac EnglandD
  • 13J. DavisonF
  • 23I. LeeD
  • 32Cameron GregoryG
Coach: G. Cowan

Form going into Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

Grimsby

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026

Shrewsbury

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Colchester26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Grimsby145542418+620
15Shrewsbury145361722-518

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

  • 29 December 2025Grimsby 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • 9 December 2025Shrewsbury 1–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 12 August 2025Grimsby 3–1 ShrewsburyLeague Cup
  • 15 December 2015Shrewsbury 1–0 GrimsbyFA Cup
  • 7 December 2015Grimsby 0–0 ShrewsburyFA Cup

Leading scorers: Grimsby and Shrewsbury

Grimsby

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.

Shrewsbury

GoalsAssists

  • G. Lloyd51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shrewsbury won 2–1 at Grimsby. The model had leaned towards a win for Grimsby at 53% and given a win for Shrewsbury 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: George Lloyd 19' for Shrewsbury, Kian McMahon-Brown 60' for Shrewsbury, Finn Cartwright 75' for Grimsby.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.