Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 22% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hertha BSC at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35M. GersbeckG
- 2J. EitschbergerD
- 44L. GechterD
- 27N. KolbeD
- 22M. PedersenD
- 30P. SeguinM
- 8K. SessaM
- 19O. AdewumiM
- 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 7J. BrekaloM
- 18L. SchulerF
- 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
- 43T. GollerG
- 33S. GouramM
- 17S. GrønningF
- 41P. KlemensD
- 21Boris Manuzah LumM
- 9G. NilssonF
- 47Selim TelibM
- 42D. ZeefuikD
- 1Florian HellsternG
- 2Lukas ReichD
- 22J. HeuerD
- 34Hendry Aron BlankD
- 23J. DehmD
- 6S. BanséM
- 13P. WillM
- 30F. KlausM
- 8S. AppelkampM
- 10Ole PohlmannM
- 42O. SillahF
- 37F. AdemiM
- 28D. ArifiM
- 9J. SiebatcheuF
- 11A. KellerM
- 29K. KeresztesD
- 39C. OrtagG
- 7D. SrbenyF
- 21M. WallentowitzM
- 45Olgherto BalliuM
Form going into Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
All competitions we cover
- D1-11. FC Magdeburg18 September 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum12 September 2026
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
- L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC won every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 31 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 10 May 2026Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 12 December 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025Hertha BSC 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 11 February 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo55
- O. Adewumi50
- S. Grønning41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Hertha BSC at 55%. The goals: Mads Valentin Pedersen 65' for Hertha BSC, Paul Seguin 80' for Hertha BSC, Jannis Heuer 90' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hertha BSC a 30.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 33.4% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.4%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For SpVgg Greuther Fürth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.1% going in: 16.1% after a win, 24.4% after a draw, 26.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.2%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is Hertha BSC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Hertha BSC win55%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −3
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.