Hertha BSC
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
The model makes it 49% Hertha BSC, 26% draw, 25% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Hertha BSC 2.16, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.22.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hertha BSC at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- D1-11. FC Magdeburg18 September 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum12 September 2026
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
- L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC won every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 10 May 2026Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 12 December 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025Hertha BSC 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 11 February 2024SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–2 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
- 26 August 2023Hertha Berlin 5–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
- J. Brekalo4 goals3 assists
- J. Þorsteinsson3 goals1 assists
- O. Adewumi3 goals
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- F. Klaus5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hertha BSC carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.44 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Hertha BSC and 1.22 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hertha BSC rate 0.84 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 0.66 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hertha BSC a 58.6% chance of the title and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hertha BSC against 1.22 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Hertha BSC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.49 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.