1. FC Kaiserslautern
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 28% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 26% draw, 46% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.23, Karlsruher SC 1.62.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- D0-0away to VfL Wolfsburg8 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Karlsruher SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No league goals recorded yet.
Karlsruher SC
- M. Broschinski2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.94 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): 1. FC Kaiserslautern D; Karlsruher SC W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.62 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.71 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 1.10 and 0.92.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karlsruher SC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.62 for Karlsruher SC. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.92 for Karlsruher SC.