FC Sion
vs
FC Noah
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 52% FC Sion, 25% draw, 23% FC Noah — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Sion 1.71, FC Noah 1.08.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Sion
- W3-2FC Vaduz9 August 2026
- W3-0FC Luzern2 August 2026
- L2-4away to BSC Young Boys26 July 2026
FC Noah
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FC Sion
- J. Lukembila1 goals1 assists
- Winsley Boteli Mokango1 goals1 assists
FC Noah
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Sion carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.52 for FC Noah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Sion L-W-W; FC Noah D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for FC Sion and 1.08 for FC Noah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Sion rate 0.72 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Noah rate 0.64 and 1.26.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Sion the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Sion against 1.08 for FC Noah. FC Sion's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.26 for FC Noah.