Rapid Vienna
vs
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Rapid Vienna 2–0 Austria Lustenau
The model makes it 70% Rapid Vienna, 18% draw, 12% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Rapid Vienna 2.83, Austria Lustenau 0.92.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Rapid Vienna are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rapid Vienna are top on 21 points from 8 games; Austria Lustenau are 8th on 8 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Lask Linz.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to TSV Hartberg.
- Last 4 meetings: Rapid Vienna 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2024, ended Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria Lustenau.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid Vienna at 70% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau
Rapid Vienna
- W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026
- W3-0WSG Wattens18 September 2026
- W3-0away to Wolfsberger AC12 September 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg2 September 2026
- W3-1Sturm Graz30 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
- L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
What these results say
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rapid Vienna had three goals or more.
- Austria Lustenau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 21 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rapid Vienna
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 56% today
Austria Lustenau
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau
- 3 March 2024Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 7 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–5 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 29 October 2022Austria Lustenau 3–3 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 7 August 2022Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau
Rapid Vienna
GoalsAssists
- T. Adamsen42
- E. Kara40
- P. Dahl30
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
- A. Verinac32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rapid Vienna carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.27 for Austria Lustenau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.83 goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.92 for Austria Lustenau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapid Vienna rate 0.89 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Lustenau rate 0.61 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rapid Vienna a 56.4% chance of the title and Austria Lustenau 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Rapid Vienna against 0.92 for Austria Lustenau. Rapid Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.96 for Austria Lustenau.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rapid Vienna at home · Austria Lustenau away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Rapid ViennaAustria Lustenau
Rapid Vienna are 1st after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Austria Lustenau are 8th after 8 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Rapid Vienna 8, Austria Lustenau 8.
Rapid Vienna score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Austria Lustenau have let in 1 there.
Austria Lustenau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Rapid Vienna have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rapid Vienna
- at Austria Vienna1 Nov · Bundesligawin 51%
- vs Wolfsberger AC6 Nov · Bundesligawin 69%
- at Grazer AK21 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at Austria Lustenau28 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%
Austria Lustenau
- at Red Bull Salzburg1 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
- vs Grazer AK7 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
- at WSG Wattens21 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Rapid Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.