VfB Stuttgart
vs
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Werder Bremen
The model makes it 51% VfB Stuttgart, 24% draw, 25% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.08, Werder Bremen 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to VfB Stuttgart: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. VfB Stuttgart's rating is built from 41 Bundesliga matches and Werder Bremen's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- VfB Stuttgart are 14th on 6 points from 7 games; Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to SC Paderborn 07.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Bremen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- L2-3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
What these results say
- VfB Stuttgart failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- 26 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 14 December 2025Werder Bremen 0–4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 13 April 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Werder Bremen 2–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 21 April 2024Werder Bremen 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2 December 2023VfB Stuttgart 2–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović30
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug60
- M. Grüll24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfB Stuttgart carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.76 for Werder Bremen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.32 for Werder Bremen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfB Stuttgart rate 1.07 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Werder Bremen rate 0.89 and 1.06.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Werder Bremen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart against 1.32 for Werder Bremen. VfB Stuttgart's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.06 for Werder Bremen.
How the model reaches 51% for VfB Stuttgart to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for VfB Stuttgart to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, VfB Stuttgart's ratings add 4 points and Werder Bremen's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage42%+4
- VfB Stuttgart's ratings46%+4
- Werder Bremen's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfB Stuttgart at home · Werder Bremen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart are 14th after 7 Bundesliga matches (between 7th and 18th so far); Werder Bremen are 8th after 6 (between 4th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: VfB Stuttgart 7, Werder Bremen 6.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
VfB Stuttgart
- at FC Schalke 0421 Nov · Bundesligawin 40%
- at Inter25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt28 Nov · Bundesligawin 50%
Werder Bremen
- vs Hamburger SV22 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt5 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.