Beitar Jerusalem
vs
Austria Vienna
The model makes it 44% Beitar Jerusalem, 29% draw, 27% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 1.33, Austria Vienna 0.99.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Beitar Jerusalem
No earlier matches on record this season.
Austria Vienna
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beitar Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.28 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Beitar Jerusalem W; Austria Vienna L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 0.99 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beitar Jerusalem rate 0.47 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.47 and 1.50.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 0.99 for Austria Vienna. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.5 for Austria Vienna.