Real Sociedad
vs
Celta Vigo
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 48% Real Sociedad, 20% draw, 32% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.08, 5.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.40, Celta Vigo 1.96.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
- 25 January 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 19 October 2025Celta Vigo 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 13 May 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 December 2024Celta Vigo 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 23 January 2024Celta Vigo 1–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 20 January 2024Celta Vigo 0–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Sociedad carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.77 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.96 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad rate 1.00 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 1.06 and 1.27.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 78% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.96 for Celta Vigo. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.27 for Celta Vigo.