Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Raków Częstochowa, 29% draw, 34% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1K. Trelowski
- 7F. Tudor
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. Racovitan
- 36M. Perovic
- 22O. Abraham
- 10V. Kochergin
- 17J. Jendryka
- 11M. Emreli
- 21T. Pienko
- 9P. Makuch
- 71T. Karic
- 2J. Napieraj
- 4S. Svarnas
- 3A. Brorsson
- 23K. Struski
- 20J. C. Silva
- 6O. Repka
- 88A. Molnar
- 15O. Kwiatkowski
- 1P. Schulze
- 61M. Sacek
- 26R. Janicki
- 20Josema
- 64E. Janza
- 14J. Kubicki
- 82K. Urbanski
- 7Y. Ikia Dimi
- 8P. Bernardo
- 33M. Khlan
- 9J. Antiste
- 99T. Loska
- 4P. Bochniewicz
- 21O. Zmrzly
- 2P. Warczak
- 66M. Dietz
- 3M. Synos
- 18L. Sadilek
- 28B. Donio
- 23S. Liseth
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
- L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
- L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
- 3 September 2026Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 2 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaCup
- 15 March 2026Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 15 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 21 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 18 August 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assist
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.