Raków Częstochowa
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 55% Raków Częstochowa, 22% draw, 23% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 2.13, Gornik Zabrze 1.34.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
- 2 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaCup
- 15 March 2026Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 15 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 21 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 18 August 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 19 April 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Raków Częstochowa
No league goals recorded yet.
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.54 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Raków Częstochowa L-L-L; Gornik Zabrze W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.34 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.88 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.68 and 1.28.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gornik Zabrze, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.34 for Gornik Zabrze. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.28 for Gornik Zabrze.