Real Madrid
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 52% Real Madrid, 28% draw, 20% Malaga — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.44, Malaga 0.79.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Malaga
- 15 April 2018Malaga 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 25 November 2017Real Madrid 3–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 21 May 2017Malaga 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 21 January 2017Real Madrid 2–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 21 February 2016Malaga 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 26 September 2015Real Madrid 0–0 MalagaLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Madrid carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.99 for Malaga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Real Madrid and 0.79 for Malaga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Madrid rate 1.23 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malaga rate 0.68 and 0.62.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Real Madrid against 0.79 for Malaga. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.62 for Malaga.