Real Betis
vs
Real Madrid
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 37% Real Betis, 23% draw, 40% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.70, 4.35 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Betis 1.81, Real Madrid 1.89.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Real Madrid
- 24 April 2026Real Betis 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Real Madrid 5–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 1 March 2025Real Betis 2–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 1 September 2024Real Madrid 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 25 May 2024Real Madrid 0–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 9 December 2023Real Betis 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
The two sides
Real Betis carry a model rating of 6.9 against 7.06 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Real Betis and 1.89 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Betis rate 1.17 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.26 and 0.82.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Real Betis against 1.89 for Real Madrid. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.82 for Real Madrid.