Osasuna
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 52% Osasuna, 27% draw, 21% Getafe — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.50, Getafe 0.86.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Osasuna
No earlier matches on record this season.
Getafe
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where they stand. Osasuna has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Getafe
- 23 May 2026Getafe 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 3 October 2025Osasuna 2–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 16 March 2025Osasuna 1–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 5 October 2024Getafe 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 21 January 2024Osasuna 3–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 17 September 2023Getafe 3–2 OsasunaLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Osasuna carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.84 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Getafe L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Osasuna and 0.86 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Osasuna rate 1.02 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.69 and 0.78.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Osasuna against 0.86 for Getafe. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/0.78 for Getafe.