Mjallby AIF
vs
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 61% Mjallby AIF, 19% draw, 20% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 2.52, Djurgardens IF 1.44.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mjallby AIF
- W4-3Sirius15 August 2026
- L0-1IF Elfsborg8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kalmar FF25 July 2026
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK17 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm11 July 2026
Djurgardens IF
- L1-3AIK Stockholm16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vasteras SK FK10 August 2026
- W6-0Vasteras SK FK3 August 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 20 |
| 6 | Djurgardens IF | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF
- 17 August 2025Mjallby AIF 1–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 15 May 2025Djurgardens IF 1–3 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 2 February 2025Mjallby AIF 1–2 Djurgardens IFFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2024Djurgardens IF 1–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2024Mjallby AIF 1–3 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 6 February 2024Djurgardens IF 0–1 Mjallby AIFFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
Mjallby AIF
No league goals recorded yet.
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.39 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Mjallby AIF L-D-L-L-W; Djurgardens IF D-W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.44 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.89 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.59 and 1.50.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Djurgardens IF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mjallby AIF a 0% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.44 for Djurgardens IF. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.5 for Djurgardens IF.