Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Barcelona, 23% draw, 20% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 23Jules KoundéD
- 5Pau CubarsíD
- 15Andreas ChristensenD
- 12Xavi EspartD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 20Dani OlmoM
- 17Anthony GordonM
- 11RaphinhaF
- 16RodriM
- 7Fermín LópezM
- 2João CanceloD
- 14Karim AdeyemiF
- 29Hamza AbdelkarimF
- 13Wojciech SzczęsnyG
- 31Eder AllerG
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 20Iván BalliuD
- 24Florian LejeuneD
- 6Pathé Ismaël CissD
- 33Jozhua VertrouwdD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 36Gnangoro BouaréM
- 19Jorge de FrutosM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 11Randy NtekaM
- 9AlemãoF
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 26Marco de las SiasD
- 2Andrei RațiuD
Form going into Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
- W5-0away to Elche23 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
- 31 August 2026Barcelona 5–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 22 March 2026Barcelona 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 31 August 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 17 February 2025Barcelona 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 27 August 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Barcelona 3–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
- Raphinha12 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal7 goals4 assists
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.