17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Anoeta, San Sebastian
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Real Sociedad, 28% draw, 31% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Sociedad at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad0%Draw5%Bournemouth95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Justin Kluivertassist: Adrien Truffert
13'
•Justin Kluivert
20'
⚽Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaassist: Alex Scott
Benat Turrientes
24'
Ander Barrenetxea
33'
42'
Justin Kluivert
🔁Hector Fortout: Gonçalo Guedes
45'
52'
Adrien Truffert
⚽Sergio Gómezassist: Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
57'
🔁Benat Turrientesout: Jon Gorrotxategi
58'
63'
🔁Adam Smithout: Bafode Diakite
63'
🔁Tyler Adamsout: Ryan Christie
69'
Bafode Diakite
71'
🔁Rayan Vitor Simplício Rochaout: Ben Gannon-Doak
71'
🔁Francisco Evanilsonout: Álvaro Rodríguez
🔁Mikel Oyarzabalout: Luka Sučić
73'
Orri Steinn Óskarsson
75'
83'
🔁Justin Kluivertout: David Brooks
🔁Ander Barrenetxeaout: Takefusa Kubo
83'
🔁Yangel Herreraout: Arsen Zakharyan
84'

Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth

54%Possession46%
16Shots11
5On target3
10Corners3

Line-ups

Real Sociedad 4-4-2
  • 13Unai MarreroG
  • 34Luken BeitiaD
  • 6Jon MartínD
  • 19M. SarrD
  • 17Sergio GómezD
  • 22Héctor FortM
  • 8Beñat TurrientesM
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 7BarrenetxeaM
  • 10Mikel OyarzabalF
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 14T. KuboF
  • 4Jon GorrotxategiM
  • 29Alex GarciaF
  • 15Pablo MarínM
  • 3Aihen MuñozD
  • 12J. OchiengF
  • 16Jon PachecoD
  • 1Álex RemiroG
  • 18Carlos SolerM
Coach: P. Matarazzo
Bournemouth 4-4-2
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 37RayanM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
  • 19J. KluivertF
Substitutes
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 4L. CookM
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 30Á. RodríguezF
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 27A. TóthM
Coach: M. Rose

Form going into Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth

Real Sociedad

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
  • D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
  • W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026

Bournemouth

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
  • D1-1Everton29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
  • Bournemouth did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Bournemouth scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Real Sociedad311183+54
3Bournemouth330081+79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth

  • 9 August 2025Bournemouth 1–1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 July 2022Bournemouth 1–2 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Bournemouth

Real Sociedad

GoalsAssists

  • Sergio Gómez30

Bournemouth

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bournemouth won 2–1 at Real Sociedad. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad at 41% and given a win for Bournemouth 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Justin Kluivert 11' for Bournemouth, Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha 20' for Bournemouth, Sergio Gómez 57' for Real Sociedad.

How the call on Real Sociedad v Bournemouth has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Real Sociedad win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Bournemouth win31%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.