New York City FC
vs
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York City FC 1–0 New York Red Bulls
The model makes it 38% New York City FC, 32% draw, 30% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.16, New York Red Bulls 0.91.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are New York City FC wins, grey are draws, red are New York Red Bulls wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: New York City FC and New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
New York Red Bulls
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York City FC carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.54 for New York Red Bulls. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for New York City FC and 0.91 for New York Red Bulls. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York City FC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York Red Bulls rate 0.67 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for New York City FC against 0.91 for New York Red Bulls. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.25 for New York Red Bulls.