New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 0-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% New York City FC, 32% draw, 30% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6James SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 21Aiden O'NeillM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 17Hannes WolfM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 9Bénie TraoréF
- 16Alonso MartínezF
- 88Malachi JonesF
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 23Max MurrayD
- 22Kevin O'TooleD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 37Mohammed SofoM
- 17Cameron HarperF
- 16Julian HallF
- 7Cade CowellF
- 59Devin PadelfordD
- 8David RuízM
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 13Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingF
- 77John McCarthyG
- 6Robert VoloderD
- 60Sekou KoneM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 92Dennis NelichF
Form going into New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York City FC had two goals or fewer.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
- 16 May 2026New York Red Bulls 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 April 2026New York Red Bulls 1–3 New York City FCUS Open Cup
- 27 September 2025New York Red Bulls 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025New York City FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 23 November 2024New York City FC 0–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2024New York Red Bulls 1–5 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau165
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York Red Bulls won 1–0 at New York City FC. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 38% and given a win for New York Red Bulls 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Hall 57' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 2.30–1.40.
How the call on New York City FC v New York Red Bulls has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 32% / 30%: the biggest move is New York City FC's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- New York City FC win38%▼ −5
- Draw32%▲ +5
- New York Red Bulls win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.