FC Orenburg
vs
FC Krasnodar
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Orenburg 1–0 FC Krasnodar
The model makes it 36% FC Orenburg, 31% draw, 33% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Orenburg 1.18, FC Krasnodar 1.09.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Orenburg wins, grey are draws, red are FC Krasnodar wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Orenburg at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
- D2-2Akron6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026
FC Krasnodar
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026
- W1-0Akhmat15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
- 17 May 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 26 November 2025FC Krasnodar 4–0 FC OrenburgCup
- 5 November 2025FC Orenburg 1–3 FC KrasnodarCup
- 10 August 2025FC Orenburg 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 17 May 2025FC Orenburg 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 3 November 2024FC Krasnodar 4–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
- A. Kasadzhikov2 goals1 assists
- R. Kul2 goals1 assists
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
- Jubal3 goals
- Christian2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Orenburg carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.34 for FC Krasnodar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for FC Orenburg and 1.09 for FC Krasnodar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Orenburg rate 0.48 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Krasnodar rate 0.54 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Krasnodar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Orenburg a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Krasnodar 34.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Orenburg the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Orenburg against 1.09 for FC Krasnodar. FC Orenburg's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.51 for FC Krasnodar.