FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Orenburg 0-0 FC Krasnodar.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Orenburg, 31% draw, 34% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Orenburg at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
Line-ups
- 1B. OvsyannikovG
- 22A. LukashovD
- 5A. TataevD
- 4D. KhotulevD
- 26E. TsenovD
- 80M. PykhcheevM
- 11E. NazarenkoM
- 10J. ThompsonM
- 8D. PueblaM
- 20D. RybchinskiyM
- 30G. GuzinaF
- 63O. MinatulaevM
- 14Robert Mejia NavarreteM
- 3D. VedernikovD
- 44João SilvaD
- 2S. PoroykovD
- 19Alexandre JesusF
- 35A. DegtevG
- 27Renat GolybinM
- 7J. GonzálezF
- 1S. AgkatsevG
- 40I. VakhaniaD
- 3Vítor TormenaD
- 5JubalD
- 15L. OlazaD
- 53A. ChernikovM
- 8Douglas AugustoM
- 23J. BoselliM
- 47D. UtkinM
- 11BatxiM
- 9J. CórdobaF
- 2M. RodríguezD
- 98S. PetrovD
- 17V. PaltsevD
- 21M. OzdoevM
- 6Kevin PinaM
- 16A. KoryakinG
- 59A. KhmarinD
- 10D. VorobjevF
Form going into FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
Premier League
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
FC Krasnodar
Premier League
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar
- 17 May 2026FC Krasnodar 3–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 26 November 2025FC Krasnodar 4–0 FC OrenburgCup
- 5 November 2025FC Orenburg 1–3 FC KrasnodarCup
- 10 August 2025FC Orenburg 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 17 May 2025FC Orenburg 1–2 FC KrasnodarPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- Batxi43
- J. Córdoba41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Orenburg at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on FC Orenburg v FC Krasnodar has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- FC Orenburg win35%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +2
- FC Krasnodar win34%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.