League Stage - 1 · 17 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

OFI vs 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League prediction

Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion

Our model says: OFI 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim

The model makes it 29% OFI, 28% draw, 43% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: OFI 1.18, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Live win probability

From kick-off
OFI29%3.45
Draw28%3.57
1899 Hoffenheim43%2.33

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: OFI vs 1899 Hoffenheim

57%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 10%0-1 9%

Every scoreline the model considered

012345
069852
16121052
247631
32321
4
5
OFI goals ↓ 1899 Hoffenheim goals →

Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are OFI wins, grey are draws, red are 1899 Hoffenheim wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into OFI vs 1899 Hoffenheim

OFI

  • W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
  • W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
  • W2-0Volos NFC23 August 2026

1899 Hoffenheim

  • W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
  • L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

OFI and 1899 Hoffenheim in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3OFISuper League 1430162+49
131899 HoffenheimBundesliga310267-13

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League 1 · Bundesliga

Leading scorers: OFI and 1899 Hoffenheim

OFI

  • K. Kodro2 goals

1899 Hoffenheim

  • A. Hložek2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

OFI carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.9 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for OFI and 1.68 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

OFI rate 0.78 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.02 and 0.93.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for OFI against 1.68 for 1899 Hoffenheim. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.93 for 1899 Hoffenheim.