Lillestrom vs Torreense UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 1-2 Torreense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 26% Torreense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Torreense
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 5S. FossD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 11F. ElkærD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 21F. OttossonM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 26Y. PaintsilF
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 20VáF
- 22D. BassiF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 31AdrielG
- 22David BrunoD
- 5M. DiadieD
- 4Volnei FeltesD
- 23Javi VázquezD
- 6A. OudrhiriM
- 8Alejandro AlfaroM
- 11Manu PozoM
- 33João MarquesM
- 7D. JeanM
- 27M. AbubakariF
- 2StopiraD
- 26André SimõesM
- 45J. MutomboD
- 21Nuha JattaM
- 53Rodrigo GuerreiroD
- 17M. DrammehF
- 19K. ZoabiF
- 44S. HenriksenG
- 3Juan María AlcedoD
Form going into Lillestrom vs Torreense
Lillestrom
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
Torreense
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Torreense
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- T. Lehne Olsen20
Torreense
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Torreense won 2–1 at Lillestrom. The model had leaned towards a win for Lillestrom at 45% and given a win for Torreense 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alejandro Alfaro 23' for Torreense, Manuel Pozo 49' for Torreense, Thomas Lehne Olsen 79' for Lillestrom. Sent off: Nuha Jatta (Torreense) 85'.
How the call on Lillestrom v Torreense has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Lillestrom's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lillestrom win45%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Torreense win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.