Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Levski Sofia, 26% draw, 27% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg
Line-ups
- 92S. VutsovG
- 21AldairD
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 4C. MakounD
- 3MaiconD
- 35SerginhoM
- 18G. TrdinM
- 17Everton BalaM
- 11A. Oko-FlexM
- 20Álex CentellesM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 8M. GrujićM
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 27David KussoF
- 78M. LukovG
- 10A. MitkovM
- 22M. SoulaF
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 9J. PereaF
- 1O. VladimirovG
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 18N. VeratschnigD
- 44K. BomaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 23D. RedzicF
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 4J. MellbergD
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 22S. LainerD
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 19K. KonatéF
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg
Levski Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC26 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0Mjallby AIF27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF20 August 2026
What these results say
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Levski Sofia and Red Bull Salzburg
Levski Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Reinaldo21
Red Bull Salzburg
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Red Bull Salzburg won 1–0 at Levski Sofia. The model had leaned towards a win for Levski Sofia at 47% and given a win for Red Bull Salzburg 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Haris Tabaković 39' for Red Bull Salzburg.
How the call on Levski Sofia v Red Bull Salzburg has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Levski Sofia win47%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Red Bull Salzburg win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.