Plzen
vs
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Plzen 1–2 Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 31% Plzen, 27% draw, 42% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Plzen 1.38, Union St. Gilloise 1.81.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Plzen wins, grey are draws, red are Union St. Gilloise wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise
Plzen
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
- D1-1Slovácko30 August 2026
- W3-2Zlin15 August 2026
Union St. Gilloise
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
- W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
- D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Plzen and Union St. Gilloise in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Plzen | Czech Liga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Czech Liga · Jupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Plzen and Union St. Gilloise
Plzen
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Union St. Gilloise
- R. Florucz4 goals
- R. Mofokeng3 goals
- B. Zeneli2 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plzen carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Plzen and 1.81 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plzen rate 0.84 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 1.33 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Plzen against 1.81 for Union St. Gilloise. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/1.01 for Union St. Gilloise.