Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Plzen, 27% draw, 42% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise
Line-ups
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 99A. MemićD
- 2T. PališčákD
- 3D. VavroD
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 19C. SouaréD
- 12A. SojkaM
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 9D. VišinskýM
- 80P. AduF
- 10M. ToureF
- 23B. FaalF
- 18T. LadraF
- 30V. BaierG
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 29A. GabrielD
- 40S. DwehD
- 98F. PrebslD
- 6L. ČervM
- 12H. KoffiG
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 80O. KričfalušiD
- 27L. PatrisM
- 17R. SchoofsM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 38R. MofokengF
- 9M. BiondicF
- 25I. HurteventF
- 20D. AquinoF
- 13K. RodríguezF
- 43Daniel Tshilanda KabongoD
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 18G. KavelashviliG
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 32S. KeitaF
Form going into Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise
Plzen
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
- D1-1Slovácko30 August 2026
- W5-1FK Crvena Zvezda27 August 2026
Union St. Gilloise
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
- W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
- D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
What these results say
- Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Union St. Gilloise won 3–0 at Plzen. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Relebohile Mofokeng 17' for Union St. Gilloise, Mateo Biondic 43' for Union St. Gilloise, Ondrej Kricfalusi 59' for Union St. Gilloise.
How the call on Plzen v Union St. Gilloise has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Plzen win31%▼ −8
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Union St. Gilloise win42%▲ +10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.